Rains Hold Key as 3.27 Million Kenyans Face Hunger Crisis, Mandera Children at Highest Risk
By Peace Muthoka
Nairobi, February 2026 — At dawn in northern Kenya, many mothers begin the day with the same worry: what will their children eat? Livestock have grown thin after months without adequate rain. Water sources lie farther away. As a result, hunger has tightened its grip across the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands.
Now, 3.27 million people face high acute food insecurity. That represents nearly one in five people in these regions.
According to the latest assessments, 2.87 million people remain in Crisis, while 399,850 have slipped into Emergency conditions, just one step below famine. Although no area has reached Catastrophe, the steady rise in Emergency cases shows how close vulnerable communities stand to the edge.
Meanwhile, attention has shifted to the March–May long rains.
If the rains delay or underperform, projections indicate that the number of people in Crisis or worse could rise to 3.69 million. Emergency cases alone may increase to 607,437. In effect, one in five people across ASAL counties could face severe hunger within weeks.
Mandera County illustrates the severity of the crisis. Following the failed October–November–December 2025 short rains, the county has entered the Alarm phase of drought. More than 335,000 residents require humanitarian assistance. However, the impact weighs heaviest on children.
Mandera has reached IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase 5, the most severe classification. Currently, 86,360 children under five need treatment for acute malnutrition. Among them, 20,165 suffer from Severe Acute Malnutrition, a life-threatening condition. In addition, more than 17,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women and girls require urgent nutrition support, exposing families to long-term health risks.
At the same time, the crisis extends beyond Mandera.
Across Kenya, 810,871 children under five now require treatment for acute malnutrition, marking a sharp rise from mid-2025. Within ASAL counties alone, nearly 500,000 children need care, including more than 113,000 severe cases.
Several factors continue to drive the emergency. Repeated poor rainfall has reduced pasture and weakened livestock, which form the backbone of pastoral livelihoods. Consequently, milk production, a primary source of protein for children, has dropped significantly. Meanwhile, high food prices, longer distances to water sources, and recurring disease outbreaks have placed additional strain on already fragile health systems. Nutrition stock-outs and limited outreach in remote areas have further slowed early treatment.
Refugee-hosting camps also face mounting pressure. About 430,000 people, representing 60 percent of camp populations, remain in Crisis or Emergency. Of these, 186,456 live in Emergency conditions. Therefore, any disruption in assistance pipelines could quickly worsen the situation.
Despite the alarming figures, Kenya has not entered famine.
However, with nearly 400,000 people already in Emergency and Mandera’s nutrition crisis at Phase 5 severity, the warning signs remain clear. Should the coming rains fail, pasture regeneration will remain low and livestock productivity will decline further. As a result, more households could shift from Crisis to Emergency, increasing the risk of localized catastrophic outcomes.
In response, the government has activated coordination mechanisms through the National Drought Management Authority and allocated KES 6 billion for drought response. Ongoing food, water, health, and livestock interventions cost an estimated KES 4 billion each month. County governments have expanded water trucking, strengthened livestock disease surveillance, and sustained facility-based nutrition programs.
Nevertheless, humanitarian actors report that needs continue to outpace available resources.
The ASAL Humanitarian Network has launched a locally led early response under its January–July 2026 Drought Flash Appeal, beginning in Mandera. Local organizations, including NAPAD, RACIDA, and Mandera Women for Peace, are leading interventions in water access, food security, nutrition, and protection while working closely with county authorities and community structures.
Ultimately, early warning systems have provided clear signals. The projections remain stark. With 3.27 million people already in Crisis or worse, and numbers likely to rise if rains fail, the coming weeks will prove critical in determining whether vulnerable families recover or slip deeper into hunger.
