TISA Executive Director Diana Gichengo (centre) addressing the press at their offices on September 18, 2026.
By Peace Muthoka
Nairobi,September 18, 2026 -The Institute for Social Accountability (TISA) has called on the national and county governments to urgently strengthen preparations for the expected El Niño rains, warning that flooding could disrupt food production, push up prices and deepen inequality among vulnerable households.
Speaking on Friday, TISA Executive Director Diana Gichengo said Kenya must move beyond weather warnings and preparedness plans and take concrete measures to protect the right to food before the October-December rains intensify.
“El Niño is coming. Kenya has been warned,” Gichengo said, noting that the country is only days away from October, when the anticipated rains are expected to begin.
According to the statement, the Kenya Meteorological Department has put the likelihood of a very strong El Niño at 81 per cent, with rains expected from mid-October and potentially continuing into January 2027.
The Meteorological Department’s seasonal forecasting system is designed to support planning in agriculture, disaster management, water and other sectors.
However, TISA warned that the expected heavy rains could have serious consequences for food security if farms, livestock, roads and markets are affected by floods and landslides.
In particular, damage to transport networks could make it difficult for farmers to move produce to markets, while losses on farms could reduce food supplies and increase pressure on household budgets.
“Flooded farms, livestock losses, damaged markets and blocked roads can reduce food availability and raise prices,” Gichengo said.
The organisation further warned that the effects of the rains would extend beyond food production. Contaminated water and damaged sanitation systems could increase health risks, while displaced families could struggle to access food, clean water, shelter and other essential services.
TISA pointed to the experience of the 2024 floods, which it said killed 315 people, displaced about 410,000 and caused an estimated KSh187 billion in damage.
It also cited more than 60 deaths during the March 2026 floods and 18 deaths from landslides in Tharaka-Nithi, Elgeyo-Marakwet and Kiambu counties.
Against this backdrop, TISA acknowledged that the government has already taken several steps to prepare for the anticipated rains. These include mapping flood and landslide hotspots, clearing drainage systems and culverts, identifying evacuation grounds, monitoring rivers and dams, inspecting critical infrastructure and strengthening community warning systems.
All 47 counties have also been directed to map high-risk areas and identify safer evacuation grounds.
In addition, the National Treasury has reported KSh7.1 billion in locally led climate-resilience grants to 43 counties within KSh11.7 billion in county-level climate-resilience financing for the 2025/26 financial year.
However, Gichengo said the priority now should be ensuring that the plans, funds and early warnings reach communities before flooding occurs.
The organisation said the burden of food insecurity and climate-related disasters is unlikely to be shared equally. Women and girls, children, older persons, persons with disabilities, pastoralists, small-scale producers and residents of informal settlements could face greater challenges in accessing food, livelihoods and essential services.
TISA is therefore calling for a rights-based national and county preparedness framework that places affected communities at the centre of planning and response.
Gichengo said the process should be guided by transparency, public participation, accountability, equality and non-discrimination.
“Preparedness must therefore apply equality, non-discrimination, participation, transparency and accountability,” she said, adding that essential services and social protection should be maintained during the emergency.
TISA also stressed that early warnings should lead to early action, rather than waiting until communities have already suffered losses.
Gichengo said the reported mobilisation of resources, including a KSh51 billion emergency loan, should translate into coordinated and publicly verifiable measures before the rains intensify.
“The immediate task is to ensure that plans, funds and warnings become completed, accessible and independently verifiable protection before the rains intensify,” she said.
With the October rains approaching, the focus is now shifting from forecasting the possible impact of El Niño to ensuring that farmers, traders and households are adequately protected from disruptions that could affect food availability, prices and livelihoods.
